Weekend Watch - Oscar Predictions 2023
With all these accomplishments, these Oscars look to be a potentially bigger deal than they have been since 2019.
Welcome to a special edition of the Weekend Watch – the Oscars 2023 predictions. This past week (on Tuesday), Oscar nominations were released, ushering in the peak of film awards season. Everything Everywhere All at Once led the nominees with eleven nominations, followed by nine apiece for The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front. Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick were other films receiving more than five nominations. All five Best Actor nominees are first-time nominees for the first time since 1935; Angela Bassett became the first actor from a Marvel film to be nominated for an acting Oscar, and for the first time ever, there are Asian actors nominated in multiple categories in the same year. With all these accomplishments, these Oscars look to be a potentially bigger deal than they have been since 2019. Let’s get into my predictions!
Best Live Action Short:
The nominees for this category are: Le Pupille, An Irish Goodbye, The Red Suitcase, Night Ride, and Ivalu. I know basically nothing about any of these short films, but based on what I’ve looked at online, here are my predictions for what should win and what will win.
Should Win: An Irish Goodbye. For me, this short sounds the most compelling of the five – a film about two brothers dealing with the loss of their mother in Ireland. Irish films have done wildly well at this year’s Oscars, and this looks to be the second-best betting favorite to win the Oscar.
Will Win: Le Pupille. This Italian short about Catholic schoolgirls during a time of war has the backing of Disney and is the most easily accessible of the category’s nominees. That alone will probably be enough to win it the Oscar.
Best Documentary Short:
The nominees for this category are: The Elephant Whisperers, How Do You Measure a Year?, The Martha Mitchell Effect, Stranger at the Gate, and Haulout. Again, this is a category that I am less familiar with, so I’m going to rely on odds and plot synopses to talk about these films.
Should Win: The Martha Mitchell Effect. I’m a sucker for a good political history documentary, particularly one that gets at the Nixon administration, so even though all of these actually sound incredibly compelling, this is the one I’m going with.
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers. I also happen to love animal documentaries, as I have learned in the past couple of years, so this betting favorite won’t disappoint me in the slightest if it wins.
Best Animated Short:
The nominees for this category are: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse, My Year of Dicks, An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It, The Flying Sailor, and Ice Merchants. This is a category that I know a little bit more about but am by no means an expert in, so I’ll offer my thoughts.
Should Win: An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It. This is just a wild premise for a film, and it’s stop-motion, so I’d love to see this one win it.
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse. Apple’s short film being so readily available helps its campaign. Combine that with its hand-drawn animation, and you’ve got a potential winner on your hands.
Best International Film:
The nominees for this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, and The Quiet Girl. Now, we’re getting into the stuff that I’m more familiar with. Films from Germany, Argentina, Belgium, Poland, and Ireland received the nominations this year – each deserving, if somewhat controversial. The snubbing of Decision to Leave, and RRR’s lack of eligibility leave this category somewhat weaker than it could have been, but a strong showing nevertheless.
Should Win: Argentina, 1985. This is a more original film than the film that will inevitably win the Oscar here and equally as entertaining. I also like EO and The Quiet Girl here, but I feel that Argentina, 1985 is the most complete film of the set.
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. The remake of the 1930s adaptation of the World War I novel has been getting all the awards love, and it looks to be one of Netflix’s two best shots at a legitimate Oscar this year.
Best Documentary Feature:
The nominees for this category are: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes, and A House Made of Splinters. Yet another stacked category that doesn’t necessarily always end up that way. Would Moonage Daydream have made this an even better set of nominees? Absolutely, but you take what they give you.
Should Win: Navalny. A film about a Russian guy who they tried and failed to assassinate where he calls one of his would-be assassins and gets him to confess over the phone – the documentary goes hard.
Will Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. A documentary about pharmaceuticals and an artist at the same time? It’s got awards darling written all over it. Hard to see this one losing.
Best Animated Feature:
The nominees for this category are: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, and Turning Red. This is an absolutely stacked category (minus The Sea Beast). Every film has a legitimate reason to win, and I’d be thrilled for most of them.
Should Win: Any film that isn’t The Sea Beast. Pinocchio is one of the best animated films I’ve seen in a while. Marcel the Shell would be a great win for indie animation. Puss in Boots is a phenomenal example of a franchise film choosing to better itself with a sequel and not settle just for a cash grab. And Turning Red is the best animated film that Disney and Pixar have put out since before the pandemic.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. The film has been winning everywhere, and even with its snubs in other categories, it’s hard to see the prolific filmmaker going home empty-handed.
Best Visual Effects:
The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Top Gun: Maverick. This category feels even more straightforward this year than it usually is, and it’s already one of the easier categories to predict.
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water. James Cameron did it again. It looks great and sometimes even looks too real – phenomenal visuals.
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water. I’d be surprised to see any of these other films win best visual effects. All Quiet and Black Panther are lurking as possible upsets thanks to strong contention in other categories, but I don’t see that pushing either one over Avatar here.
Best Sound:
The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. Again, not an overly surprising list of nominees.
Should Win: The Batman. The amount of different effects and their ability to create size and scope in this film just was phenomenal for me. Does it blow out my T.V. speakers when I watch it at home? Sometimes, but that just means it’s good, right? Also, I’m here to shut out the vaguely overrated Top Gun.
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick. With its snub in the cinematography category, I imagine they’ll put a lot of their campaigning focus on this category, and all the war sounds work well in their favor. All Quiet and Avatar are also there, but I think this feels pretty locked.
Best Song:
The nominees in this category are: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, and “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. The big surprises of “Applause” and “This Is a Life” over Taylor Swift’s “Carolina” and “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio indicate that we know very little about how this category works and also to never count out Diane Warren.
Should Win: “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Rihanna’s epilogue song to the incredibly moving Black Panther sequel does so much in bringing the film’s final scenes home. For me, it was part of one of the best film moments from this year.
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR. The sole nomination for the Indian hit feels like a safe bet for the Best Song Oscar, and it also happens to be part of another iconic film scene – the dance off in the film that is one of the most exciting action pieces of the year. I’m fine with this win as long as it’s not “Hold My Hand”.
Best Score:
The nominees in this category are: Volker Bertelmann for All Quiet on the Western Front, Justin Hurwitz for Babylon, Carter Burwell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Son Lux for Everything Everywhere All at Once, and John Williams for The Fabelmans. John Williams extends his record of most nominated living person in this refreshingly surprising category that includes a surprise nomination for Son Lux.
Should Win: Justin Hurwitz for Babylon. About the only thing people can agree on about the divisive film is its musical excellence. Hurwitz’s score carries the film from start to finish, and it’s one of those that, when you hear it, you immediately know what film it is from.
Will Win: Justin Hurwitz for Babylon. Could they give John Williams a sendoff Oscar? Yeah, but he’s already got a few wins (granted Hurwitz does too). This feels like a two-composer race that Hurwitz will come out victorious in.
Best Production Design:
The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, and The Fabelmans. In a year without period pieces set before the 1900s, this is a harder category to predict, and Avatar’s nomination might be an interesting film to watch for an upset.
Should Win: The Fabelmans. The production design for this film doesn’t just capture a period of time; it also captures the character of so many of Spielberg’s other films – showcasing the film’s message about the impact of the filmmaker’s childhood on his career. It’s hard to put into words, but I was very impressed with it.
Will Win: Elvis. One thing Baz Luhrmann films consistently have is quality production design, and Elvis is no different. The almost fantastical sets capture the essence of the rockstar’s celebrity in a fashion that looks to be a winning formula for the film.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and The Whale. Prosthetics galore exist in this category where hairstyling seems to have taken a bit of a backseat this year.
Should Win: The Batman. They made Colin Farrell unrecognizable as the Penguin, made Robert Pattinson look emo, had Zoë Kravitz looking great as Selina Kyle, this team did it all in a great film.
Will Win: The Whale. The team that turned Brendan Fraser into a morbidly obese English teacher looks to be the one that will take the whole thing, and I would be surprised to see anyone else here.
Best Film Editing:
The nominees in this category are The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick. This category has become indicative of the direction of Best Picture in the past decade, with only a few winners not receiving the nomination for editing as well, and this year looks no different.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. Maybe I’m just a big dumb idiot who doesn’t understand the complexities of film editing, but all the shots that get cut together with all their fascinating cuts in Everything Everywhere left me feeling very impressed with its editing.
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick. A film that looks to be this year’s more disappointing version of Mad Max: Fury Road, the Top Gun sequel will probably pull this technical win as well.
Best Costume Design:
The nominees in this category are: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. Again, this isn’t an overly surprising category and looks to be going the way everyone thinks.
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Once again innovating and creating costumes for a visually stunning comic book film, Ruth E. Carter created memorable and iconic looks for each character in this film.
Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. She won last time for Black Panther, and nothing else looks quite strong enough to provide a legitimate challenge to the iconic looks of this film. Feels pretty dang solid.
Best Cinematography:
The nominees for this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Empire of Light, Elvis, and Tár. This might be one of the most surprising categories this year with snubs for The Fabelmans and the betting favorite going into the nominations, Top Gun: Maverick. The field is still fairly open with some being safer bets than others.
Should Win: Tár. The unique stylings of Todd Field’s film start with its cinematography and, along with Cate Blanchett’s performance, is one of the main reasons that the film has received all the recognition that it has. I’d be thrilled to see this win.
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. Netflix’s foreign language frontrunner also happens to be a technically excellent film in the eyes of the Academy. In a category with no clear frontrunner at the moment, it’s easy to see how the streamer could pick up another win here.
Best Original Screenplay:
The nominees in this category are: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Triangle of Sadness. There’s no crazy surprises here, and it looks to be a two-film race between the best picture favorites Banshees and Everything Everywhere.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s funny, dramatic, creative, aggressively original, and risk-taking in a way that all original screenplays should be. Unfortunately, with all the other love that it’s sure to get on the night of the awards, I think it’ll miss out on this one.
Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin. The Academy loves them some Martin McDonagh, and his dark comedy about two friends falling out looks to be ready to secure him another Oscar. The expectation that the film won’t win Best Picture or Best Director also lends to this film holding its spot as the favorite.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, and Women Talking. The surprise nomination for Top Gun (perhaps a consolation for missing the cinematography nom) doesn’t look to actually shake much up in this category, but still…
Should Win: Living. Kazuo Ishiguro’s adaptation of Ikiru, Akira Kurosawa’s adaptation of The Death of Ivan Ilyich, is one of the more interesting adapted films of the year, especially in a category that includes a remake and two sequels.
Will Win: Women Talking. Sarah Polley missed out on a Best Director nomination but looks to be ready to run away with this win for her adaptation of Miriam Toews’s novel. I won’t be upset, as this seems to be the most original of the adapted screenplays.
Best Supporting Actor:
The nominees in this category are: Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans, Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin, and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Henry’s nomination came as a surprise, leaving Paul Dano on the outside looking in, but it looks like all of them will be also-rans to this year’s winner.
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Quan’s Waymond Wang is the emotional core of the film, and he delivers one of the most devastatingly hopeful lines of the year in the film’s third act in a scene that I believe solidifies him as this year’s winner.
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The comeback story of the year in Hollywood has been Quan’s campaign for all of these awards, winning and accepting them with hope and joy. It’s hard to imagine the Academy going against everyone else on this one.
Best Supporting Actress:
The nominees in this category are: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Hong Chau for The Whale, Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin, Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Perhaps the most tightly contested category but also the least surprising in terms of nominees, Best Supporting Actress looks to be the most exciting category of the year.
Should Win: Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The daughter and villain(?) of the Daniels’ multiverse film does work in both roles that she is asked to play in the film, bringing all of her cynicism, heart, and love to bear in the performance.
Will Win: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. For starters, this Oscar will be long overdue. For another, Bassett’s performance is my second-favorite of the nominees, and she doesn’t have a co-star to split votes with, so she feels like the right and safe choice here (though don’t be surprised if it’s literally any of the others).
Best Actor:
The nominees in this category are: Austin Butler for Elvis, Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser for The Whale, Paul Mescal for Aftersun, and Bill Nighy for Living. Paul Mescal getting in over Tom Cruise and Diego Calva wasn’t as much a surprise as a relief, but he’s not really that important to what truly is a three-actor race. After the SAGs, we should have a clearer idea of who the frontrunner really is.
Should Win: Brendan Fraser for The Whale. Fraser’s performance carries the film and has brought him back to prominence in the industry. His increasing versatility makes him a solid choice here.
Will Win: Austin Butler for Elvis. Butler follows in a classic tradition of actors nominated for portraying musical icons. In this case, his performance as “the King” makes him a fairly safe bet, especially in light of the tragedy of Lisa Marie Presley’s death.
Best Actress:
The nominees in this category are: Cate Blanchett for Tár, Ana de Armas for Blonde, Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie, Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans, and Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Alright, this is the wildest category for snubs and surprises. How did both Danielle Deadwyler get left out for Till and Viola Davis for The Woman King in favor of Andrea Riseborough and Ana de Armas? It blows my mind, but it's not like any of those four women had much of a chance of actually winning the award anyway.
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Full disclosure, I haven’t actually watched Tár yet, so I don’t know for sure that this performance is better than Blanchett’s, but she’s already got two, and Michelle Yeoh is phenomenal in Everything Everywhere, so why not?
Will Win: Cate Blanchett for Tár. Blanchett is a powerhouse actress, and her performance in this film sounds like it is more of the same that should add her (deservedly so) to the ranks of actors with three acting Oscars. Don’t totally count out either Michelle, though Williams looks more and more like a longshot every day.
Best Director:
The nominees in this category are: the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Todd Field for Tár, Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin, Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness, and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. Though decried for the category’s exclusion (yet again) of female directors, the only one who I can legitimately see replacing here is Östlund in favor of Sarah Polley or Gina Prince-Bythewood, none of whom actually have a shot of beating either of the frontrunners.
Should Win: The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The directing duo of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert created and directed a film that truly took the world by storm and has revamped the world of indie filmmaking and its legitimacy as both entertainment (keyword here) and art.
Will Win: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. Has his campaign lost some steam since his win at the Globes and his missing out on the BAFTA longlist? Absolutely, but I still don’t see the Academy going away from giving him credit for this autobiographical film. I could be surprised, but I’m not there yet.
Best Picture:
The nominees for the top prize at the Oscars are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. This is one of the most satisfying slates of Best Picture nominees in a while and should leave the Oscars with a legitimately good film as its top winner no matter what.
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s my favorite film of the year, and it looks like a lot of other people agree with me. Originality and innovation should be celebrated more and more.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. The only other challengers to it are Banshees and The Fabelmans, neither of which seems to have as much support going into this voting season. The film’s originality, leading of the nominations, and positive campaigning have it looking more and more like a runaway winner every day.